CansoVLJ market long term prospects improve, despite Eclipse problems
March 9, 2007 PMI-Media. The very light jet (VLJ) order book now stands at 4,010 aircraft, with 14 aircraft types competing in this new aviation sector, according to latest VLJ forecast from aerospace consultants PMI-Media.
"We have revised down estimated deliveries for 2007 from 205 to 125," according to PMI-Media analyst Rainer Vogel. "This is mainly due to a fall in production numbers of Eclipse 500s for 2007. In the longer term prospects of this market look far more resilient. Previous forecasts may have under-estimated the order and delivery potential of the Diamond D-Jet, which is on course for its first deliveries in the second half of 2008, with an order book now extending to 240 plus aircraft and a development programme on course for certification in the second quarter of 2008. The Embraer Phenom 100 has also a recent surge in orders, beyond the company's expectations."
The letter sent out by Eclipse CEO Vern Raburn on March 2 detailing the technical issues which have delayed the production of Eclipse 500s - and their potential remedies - suggests the problems facing the company are more deep-seated than previously realized. While some of these problems are largely technical there do appear to other more deep-seated issues, such as the shortage in appropriately qualified technical staff and "quality" problems with suppliers which suggest it will take the company far longer to achieve the 1,000 aircraft a year production rate it is currently planning.
These delays will have an important impact on the overall market as customers, both corporate and private, look for alternative aircraft sources if the Eclipse 500 production problems are not solved within the next three or four months. Companies having the experience to type-certify and build previous types, such as Embraer and Diamond, are likely to see increases in demand.
* PMI-Media's next aviation market report Aircraft and the environment will provide a comprehensive review of the aviation industry's efforts to decouple future air transport growth from increased environmental impact. It will be available in late March 2007. For more information on the report, please visit http://www.pmi-media.com, or contact Rainer Vogel, tel: +49 7305 927292, rainer.vogel at pmi-media.com
About PMI Media International:
PMI Media Ltd is a global publishing company with offices in the UK, Germany and North America. The company specialises in supporting aviation and industry trade associations in their media strategies - developing magazines, newsletters, yearbooks, multi-media and audio-visual products. PMI's mission is to enhance the effectiveness of its clients by developing a unique collection of industry publications and intelligence services which will transform the capabilities of the client, in a cost-effective and proactive way. PMI was selected in 2004 as the media partner for the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO) to produce the 2005 and 2006 CANSO yearbooks.
